THE STORYLINE:
Although the 17-game regular-season schedule now makes it less precise, I’ve long broken down an NFL season into 4-game blocks or quarters. Since we’re at the 4-game mark with roughly 1/4 of the season now over, I think this is a good time to look at the big picture.
The facts are not kind. The Giants are 1-3. They are 0-2 and dead last in the NFC East. They are 0-2 at home. They are -24 in point differential, averaging only 15 points per game, which makes them 30th in scoring. In terms of yards, they are 21st in offense and 12th in defense. Looking at the upcoming schedule, it is difficult to see where the team may win many more games.
Bad years happen. But we’re talking more than a bad decade now. Since 2012, in the NFC East, the Giants have no first-place finishes, two second-place finishes, six third-place finishes, and three last-place finishes. (And oh by the way, one of those second-places finishes was a 6-10 record). There were only two seasons of note, 2016 and 2022. The rest has been complete garbage with the seasons all but officially over by Halloween. Here we are again.
It feels like we’re in an abusive relationship with an organization that is supposed to provide a distraction and some joy. Pro football is supposed to be fun. It’s entertainment. But this isn’t fun. It sucks. And it’s not getting better.
So on Sunday, like masochistic customers who keep going back to the same shitty restaurant, we’ll be served another horrible meal and end up feeling miserable.
“Trust the process,” they say. Those sound like empty words.
THE INJURY REPORT:
- RB Devin Singletary (groin – doubtful)
- WR Malik Nabers (concussion – out)
- WR Wan’Dale Robinson (heel – probable)
- ILB Matt Adams (quad – questionable)
- OLB Brian Burns (groin – probable)
- CB Dru Phillips (calf – questionable)
- CB Adoree’ Jackson (calf – questionable)
The Seahawks are a bit difficult to evaluate. They have a new coaching staff with long-time Ravens’ defensive assistant coach Mike Macdonald now the head man. When healthy, they have talent at all three levels of their defense, but they are a bit banged up. They have also been fortunate to play three teams that are clearly struggling on offense (Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos… two of those teams actually worse than the Giants at scoring points).
But there’s the rub. 2024 has proven to be yet another season where the New York Giants don’t score enough points to win. Let me emphasize that point again because you are going to hear it from me over and over again the rest of the season. THE NEW YORK GIANTS DON’T SCORE ENOUGH POINTS TO WIN. In 2024, they are averaging 15 points per game. In 2023, they averaged 15.6 points per game. The best scoring defense in football last year (Ravens) allowed 16.5 points per game. The Giants currently allowing 21 points per game. Do the math.
Why are the Giants so bad at scoring? In the past, the obvious answer was the offensive line. That excuse isn’t valid this year. This line is pretty darn good in protecting the quarterback. What about weapons? Nope. The Giants have Malik Nabers, who is putting up historic numbers. Nabers is not enough and/or the coaching? Possible, but there is enough historical evidence with the coaches and players in question to suggest these are not the overriding issues. Brian Daboll has a history. Devin Singletary has a history. Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton can play.
Which brings us to Daniel Jones, the one constant for the past six years. As my cohort John on Inside BBI has recently said, while Jones may not have lost any recent games, he certainly is not winning them. An inability or unwillingness to challenge defenses down the field has become obvious to everyone except the most obtuse. In four games, Jones is averaging 220 yards per game with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Most damning is he is averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and has not completed one pass for 40 yards or more (even including yards after the catch). In the last game against the Cowboys, the Giants had five scoring drives, but none of them reached the end zone. This has been an ongoing issue for Jones since his rookie season. Even in his best season – 2022 – he only threw 15 touchdowns.
So unless Daniel has some sort of “come to Jesus” moment where he turns into a completely different quarterback, the offense will not score enough points to consistently win football games. Discussing anything else is relatively moot at this point. The absence of Malik Nabers is going to make this even worse.
GIANTS ON DEFENSE:
The Giants are 1-3 so everything is fair game in terms of criticism. And the defense can play better. But big picture, in order, the Giants have allowed 28, 21, 15, and 20 points per game. That’s a 21-point average, or 12th in scoring defense. Not bad. They are also 12th in yards allowed, up from 26th under Wink Martindale. The Giants are 15th in run defense (up from 28th in 2023) and 14th in pass defense (allowing less than 200 passing yards per game). These are respectable numbers and far better than most of the past decade.
On the positive side, much of this has occurred with a revolving door in the secondary because of injuries to players such as Nick McCloud, Dru Phillips, and Adoree’ Jackson. “We’ve had a lot of moving parts there up to this point, just with injuries,” said Shane Bowen on Thursday. “Pleased with the versatility. Pleased with the guys that have stepped in. There’s some roles that they were kind of forced into throughout these first four weeks, so we’ll see where we’re at as this week keeps going, but just continuing to improve.”
On the negative side, fans desperately want to see more impact plays from Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. Whether you agree or not, the coaches insist these two are playing better than it appears. “We’ve been productive for the most part trying to affect the quarterback… Teams are doing a good job getting the ball out, too. I mean it takes all 11 to affect the quarterback. It’s not just the front four, so we’ve got to understand that as a defense as well, with just what we’re asking these guys to do coverage-wise, what we’re playing, to be able to buy a little bit more time potentially for those guys to get home. But I’m pleased with where they’re at. Again, I don’t think the production ultimately shows the effectiveness of them up to this point. I’m sure they’d all love to have multiple sacks. Hopefully they come, but at the same time, I think they’re doing a good job for us.”
The Giants know they need more talent at defensive tackle and outside corner. Those reinforcements are not coming in 2024 so the team is at the mercy of guys like Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Elijah Chatman, Nick McCloud, Cor’Dale Flott, Adoree’ Jackson, etc. to hopefully do a reasonable job. I also think fans don’t fully realize just how young this secondary is, including the headliners like Tae Banks and Jason Pinnock.
Big picture, through four games, the defense is trending in the right direction. But that can change. And that can change in a big way negatively if the defense loses all hope and confidence in the offense to keep games competitive.
As for this particular game, the Seahawks are loaded at the skill positions. They have three excellent wide receivers, including stud D.K. Metcalf. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett are really good too. Kenneth Walker is a very tough and physical running back who can break tackles. To have a chance, the Giants will have to dominate up front and cause Geno Smith to have a bad game. He’s been so-so this year.
GIANTS ON SPECIAL TEAMS:
Weird couple of games for Greg Joseph, who badly missed an important field goal against the Browns, but then went an impressive 5-of-5 against the Cowboys. Who do we get this week?
THE FINAL WORD:
My fear here is team confidence. At 1-3 and in last place, the season clearly is on the brink of slipping away. Reporters said after the Dallas game that the locker room was particularly gloomy. Internal frustration may be building. This is an important game for the franchise. The Giants can still steady this ship. Or things can get really ugly. Keep in mind, Seattle beat the Giants 24-3 last season at MetLife.
This is a game where the team could get blown out. If so, look out.
(Side note, John and I went into far more detail about the Giants and the quarterback situation in our most recent Inside BBI podcast).