Approach to the Game – Washington Redskins at New York Giants, December 7, 2003: The suspense isn’t going to be if the Giants lose the remainder of their games…they will. The suspense will be how many games the other lowly teams in the league will win. That is what will determine where the Giants will be picking in the first round. But picking very high might not necessarily be a good thing. The higher the pick, the bigger chunk of salary cap room the rookie will take and the more likely there will be a lengthy hold out. Also, the best player available might not match up nicely with need. And in today’s NFL, need always factors into the draft. General Manager Ernie Accorsi has said that time and time again.
Why won’t the Giants win again this year? In their final four games, they play the Redskins, Saints, Cowboys, and Panthers. The last three teams are vying for playoff spots. This week is the Giants’ last best chance to win a game, but they won’t. The Giants simply do not have the personnel in the secondary to cover wide receivers Laveranues Coles, Rod Gardner, and Darnerien McCants. On offense, the Giants’ offensive line isn’t facing a very tough Redskins’ defensive line, but they will have to contend with the blitzing LaVar Arrington, Jessie Armstead, and Jeremiah Trotter. The Giants will be challenged physically because players such as Jeff Hatch, Scott Peters, and/or Jeff Roehl will be in the line-up. They will be also challenged mentally. As OC Chris Bober says:
I think for a lot of the young guys, their heads are spinning…When you have an experienced group out there, everyone knows what everyone else is doing. Right now, we’re missing the guys that know exactly what the person next to them is going to do. So they only had to worry about what they were going to do. For example, if we have the Mike linebacker and he goes way outside, I know they’re all going to fan to him. We used to just track him and make the play. Now we have to make so many calls, because guys are trying to look at their guy, plus worry about what happens if somebody flashes. The line is one entity. But if we have a crack in there somewhere, it falls on the whole line.
So with a 4-12 season pretty much a foregone conclusion, I would rather spend the time looking at what needs to be done in the upcoming offseason.
Giants on Defense: You may recall the really negative feedback I received on Defensive Coordinator Johnnie Lynn after the playoff game against the 49ers. I providing the damning quote in my review of that game. Well, the same source tells me:
The defensive players can’t stand Lynn and can’t wait for him to get fired. They feel he puts them in defensive schemes that do not play to their strength and, basically, sets them up to fail. In addition, they make little or no changes week to week so they’re easy to figure out. “We make everyone look good.” There is also little confidence in Defensive Backs Coach DeWayne Walker.
As I pointed out in my review of the second Giants-Eagles game, the Giants don’t confuse anyone but themselves on defense. The players know this, don’t believe in the system, and can’t wait for this group of defensive coaches to be shown the door. Wonder why the Giants aren’t playing inspired football??? There is your answer.
Defensive Line: The only sure thing is that DE Michael Strahan will be here next season. DT Cornelius Griffin is the next best defensive lineman, but he will be an unrestricted free agent. I think he is the Giants’ most important UFA. No, Griffin doesn’t have the sacks, but he has played the run very well this year and he has the ability to rush the passer. After perusing the dearth of quality defensive tackles in the upcoming free agency period, I’ve got to think that Griffin is going to be pretty popular if he hits the open market. According to Ourlads, DE Kenny Holmes has a performance clause in his contract that most likely enables him to become an unrestricted free agent. If true, he knows the writing is on the wall with respect to his future with the Giants and he is probably heading elsewhere. DT Keith Hamilton is near the end of the line, is a Fassel-supporter who will carry no weight with the new coaching staff, and actually may be in jail next year. It’s time to sever the ties.
The word on DT William Joseph, who I very much wanted the Giants to draft and still have high hopes for, is that he is “a very, very soft player with no emotion or motor. He needs a coach that will light a fire under his ass.” I am giving Joseph the benefit of the doubt here as when he has played, I have not seen him play any “softer” than starter Keith Hamilton. The fact that the coaching staff doesn’t give him much playing time may contribute to his negative attitude. It’s absolutely unconscionable that the Giants are playing Frank Ferrara over Joseph. Joseph has the tools…he’s big, strong, and athletic. I’ve seen him push the pocket and chase after the ball carrier. I still think he will be the opening day starter next season. I really like what I’ve seen from Osi Umenyiora. He has the look of a natural pass rusher…something that Kenny Holmes doesn’t. He’s got great size for a weakside end and has a big upside.
DE Keith Washington will be unrestricted and it’s anyone’s guess whether he will be back or not. DT Lance Legree will be a restricted free agent with no attached compensation since he was not drafted. As I said before the 2003 NFL Draft, the Giants will have to spend draft picks again in the 2004 draft on defensive linemen. In fact, I would not be upset at all if the very first pick in the draft was a defensive end or defensive tackle. A 4-3 defense depends on a dominating defensive line. Re-sign Griffin and draft another end and tackle. If Griffin departs, a couple of names to consider are Rod Coleman of the Raiders, Robaire Smith of the Titans, and Warren Sapp of the Buccaneers (yes, I am serious with the latter).
Linebackers: This is an area in the need of a complete overhaul. The problem is that even if the Giants spend a lot of draft picks in this area (and keep in mind the Giants will only have 7 draft picks total), teams can’t rely on rookies to start and/or play well. With respect to linebackers, it’s not so much as problems making plays moving forward, but learning the complex pro pass coverage schemes and techniques. So I think the Giants need to look at picking up at least one veteran free agent here, maybe two plus the draft.
Dhani Jones and Brandon Short will be unrestricted free agents. I think Dhani Jones is gone. He isn’t very fast, doesn’t make many plays, and if the Giants hire Tom Coughlin, I can’t see Coughlin wanting a free spirit like Jones (the first thing he would do would be to order him to shave and cut his hair). I’d like to see the Giants bring back Brandon Short. He’s a good two-down linebacker and the Giants need some continuity at this position.
There is a good chance that Mike Barrow will be let go. He really struggles in coverage now and is making a lot of money. Can Nick Greisen fill in and do an acceptable job? The Giants had better bring in some competition just in case.
Kevin Lewis, Wes Mallard, and Quincy Monk haven’t done anything to excite in the previous two preseasons.
So the Giants probably need to sign/draft at least two starters here and find some competitive back-ups. There isn’t a lot out there in free agency. The dream pick-up would be 49er LB Julian Peterson, but he will likely be off the market. Perhaps a guy like Al Wilson of the Broncos or Carlos Emmons of the Eagles might be an attractive option.
Defensive Backs: If Will Allen (foot) and Will Peterson (back) come back close to 100 percent, this could be a team strength with them, and Frank Walker. Ralph Brown will be unrestricted and if he departs, the Giants need to find a viable 4th cornerback – most likely lower in the draft. Will Peterson will be a restricted free agent, but the Giants can tender him at the 1st round level and his injury problems will most likely scare teams away.
The big question is what to do at safety. SS Shaun Williams had a horrible year. Is that because of the defensive system or has Williams simply become a bad player? The problem is I don’t think you can cut Williams as he signed a 7-year, $24.5 million deal that included a $6.5 million signing bonus in 2002. That’s a pretty big cap hit if that bonus money gets accelerated. Unlike most drafts, there appear to be quite a few interesting prospects at free safety. Some even consider University of Miami FS Sean Taylor the best defensive player in the country. There are some interesting veterans out there too such as Greg Wesley and Jerome Woods of Kansas City, Lawyer Milloy of Buffalo, Donovin Darious of Jacksonville, and Antwan Harris of New England.
Defensive Summary: In my opinion, most of the team’s needs are defensive. They need more help on the defensive line, they need to overhaul the linebacking corps, and they need to upgrade at safety. But there is talent to work with on the defensive line and at corner…the foundation of a 4-3 defense.
Giants on Offense: Kerry Collins will be the Giants starting quarterback in 2004, and most likely in 2005 and 2006. Ernie Accorsi isn’t looking to replace him. You’d have to be blind not to know that Collins is at his best when he is given solid pass protection. (What quarterback isn’t?) The Giants have the talent to be an extremely dangerous offensive team if they simply can get their offensive line in order. The new coaching staff will most likely also have a better feel for the running game than the previous administration.
Quarterback: Even if you don’t agree with me that Collins isn’t part of the problem, the only opinion that matters is that Accorsi feels the same way. At the same time, Accorsi has said a number of times that you don’t pass on a great quarterback. What if Eli Manning is available when the Giants pick? Can this team – which has the ability to turn things around quickly and become competitive once again in 2004 – afford the “luxury” of drafting a player who most likely won’t play for 2-3 seasons? On the other hand, would the Giants be haunted down the road if they didn’t take him? That said, Manning is no sure thing and there are dozens of examples of quarterbacks taken in the top 10 who were supposed to be “sure fire stars” who ended up being terrible busts. One option to consider in such a scenario is trading down and picking up additional premium picks.
Regardless, the Giants do need to replace Jesse Palmer (restricted free agent) and Jason Garrett, unless the new coaching staff thinks they can work with Palmer. If both are gone, look for a lower draft pick plus a cheap veteran to be signed.
Running Backs: Tiki Barber will return as the starter, but the new coaching staff won’t put up with the fumbles. So there is a greater chance that Tiki will see far fewer carries. Tiki needs someone to complement him – a big back who does well in short yardage, but who can also be a feature back when and if necessary. Other than the offensive line, I see this as the biggest need on offense.
As for fullback, the League seems to be de-emphasizing them. Still, a guy like Dan Kreider of the Steelers or Terrelle Smith of the Saints would interest me in free agency.
Tight End: Jeremy Shockey is an impact player. Visanthe Shiancoe flashes very good ability as an in-line blocker. He has the size, strength, and temperament to do well there. Marcellus Rivers and Darnell Dinkins are still in the picture. A new coach may look to add a cheap veteran who can help out as a blocker.
Wide Receiver: The Giants can win with Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard, Tim Carter, Willie Ponder, and David Tyree. However, what if Roy Williams (Texas) or Reggie Williams (Washington) are available when the Giants pick? It’s hard to pass on impact skill position players.
Offensive Line: To me, there are three big questions: (1) Is management willing to draft a left tackle high (i.e., Shawn Andrews of Arkansas or Robert Gallery of Iowa) and move Luke Petitgout back to right tackle? (2) What is the prognosis for OG Rich Seubert’s recovery from a severely broken leg? (3) What kind of philosophy will the offensive line coach next year subscribe to? With respect to the first question, keep in mind that as much as we don’t want to think about it, financial slotting of players occurs in this league. Most teams can’t afford to pay two tackles “left tackle money” and Luke just signed a huge 6-year, $30 million contract that included nearly a $10 million signing bonus. An offensive line of Gallery-Seubert-Bober-Diehl-Petitgout would be appealing, but is it realistic financially?
Another key question is can the Giants re-sign Chris Bober (unrestricted free agent)? Bober is a decent player, but not special. However, the Giants got burned last season by letting decent, but not special players get away. If they lose Bober, is Wayne Lucier a viable replacement? He could be.
Ian Allen has not played poorly at right tackle, but the Giants will need to bring in another quality body to compete just in case. They also need insurance in case Seubert can’t come back near 100 percent. The word on Jeff Hatch is that he is a soft player.
On the free agent market, some players to watch would be OC Damien Woody (Patriots), RT John Tait (Chiefs), OG Matt O’Dwyer (Bengals), OG Travis Claridge (Falcons), and OG Chris Villarrial (Bears).
Special Teams: The Giants will bring in new linebackers and safeties and this should help to continue to upgrade the personnel. The biggest need here is to hire one of the better special teams coaches in the league. Jeff Feagles should be still around, but I’m not so sure about Mike Hollis or Matt Bryant.